Are Young Refugees More Likely to Enter Training Places With Vacancy Problems? Comparisons Between Immigrant Youths in Germany

Abstract

Context: In Germany, young refugees participate in vocational education and training (VET) at significantly lower rates than non-migrants and migrants without a refugee background. At the same time, the German training market is increasingly characterized by shortages of applicants in specific training occupations, resulting in a growing number of unfilled training places. During the refugee inflow of 2015 and 2016, policymakers, employers, and researchers emphasized the potential of vocational training to promote refugees' labor market integration while simultaneously alleviating recruitment problems in shortage occupations. Entering VET may also improve refugees' prospects for remaining in Germany, particularly for those with insecure residence status. Against this background, this study examines whether young refugees are disproportionately likely to enter training occupations with vacancy problems and whether legal insecurity further shapes these transitions. 

Methods: The analysis draws on pooled cross-sectional data from the BA/BIBB Applicant Surveys 2018 and 2020, linked with official statistics on unfilled training places at the occupational level. The analytical sample includes 7,176 applicants who successfully entered dual vocational training. The dependent variable measures the proportion of unfilled training places in the occupation entered. Ordinary least squares regressions are used to estimate differences by migration status. To test whether human capital endowments account for group differences, mediation analyses focusing on school-leaving certificates recognized or acquired in Germany are conducted. The role of residence status is examined using a subsample of refugee applicants from 2018 (N = 2,043), for whom detailed legal status information is available. 

Findings: The findings show that young refugees enter training occupations with significantly higher vacancy rates than both non-migrants and migrants without a refugee background. Compared to non-migrants, refugees transition into occupations in which the share of unfilled training places is, on average, 39 percent higher. Differences in school-leaving certificates partially, but not fully, mediate this association. Among refugees, those with an insecure residence status or who are still in the asylum process are more likely to enter shortage occupations, even after controlling for formal qualification levels. This pattern suggests that legal considerations shape occupational choices beyond human capital constraints. 

Conclusion: The results indicate that disadvantaged legal and educational positions contribute to the concentration of young refugees in training occupations with vacancy problems. While this dynamic may appear as a short-term win–win situation for employers and refugees, it also entails risks such as increased training dropout rates and long-term occupational segregation.